Tuesday 5th September

Profit is the name of the game and it might have been a small one, but the tips still showed one on Saturday thanks to the two handicaps bet. I didn’t think there would be much opportunity to make money out of Billericay this season so to have already done so 3 times is more than pleasing and they kept up the great record with the Naps. This week sees matches in the National League North/South and the Evo-Stik Northern Premier and I have 5 bets.

Braintree v Welling

I didn’t expect Braintree to be doing so well after relegation last season, but they have only lost one of their first 8 games and have set up a solid base for the rest of the season. They had to come from behind on Saturday against Oxford City, but it was their 5th win of the season and an odds against quote (albeit only very slightly above evens with Marathon) to beat Welling looks worth taking. Welling have only won once this season and although a draw at Bath on Saturday was a decent result, they did lose two of their best players to injury in the first half. This is another very tough away game for them and I like the chances of a home win.

Chippenham v Gloucester City

The prices for this game make little sense to me. Gloucester started the season terribly, but have really turned it around having won four games on the bounce, including a very good 3-2 victory at St Albans on Saturday. City were struggling to score goals so the fact they have 8 in their last 3 games is a big reason behind their improvement in form. Chippenham have been a bit inconsistent so far this season with some very good results, mixed in with some disappointing ones like their 4-2 loss to Eastbourne on Saturday. They have also conceded 15 goals so far this season and although they have scored 14 it is clear defensively they have issues. Given they are 4 points behind City I can’t understand why they are odds on with most bookies for this game. It is almost like bookies have priced it up based on the fact City only had 1 point from their first 4 games not on the fact they have won their last 4. 14/5 with Bet 365 is way bigger than it should be about an away win. At the prices they look the joint best bet of the night along with Braintree.

Poole v Hemel Hempstead

Hemel have been a little disappointing after a decent start to the season and they have only picked up 1 point in their last 4 games. They should have been out of sight against Truro on Saturday as they had quite a few chances in the first half, but they only put one away and they ended up losing the game 2-1. Poole have also picked up just the 1 point in their last 4 games and that came on Saturday when they blew a 2 goal lead against bottom side Whitehawk. That is a pretty shocking effort and I don’t think Poole are anywhere near as strong as they were last season. Hemel’s side look stronger on paper and I still think they can play a part in the promotion picture.  Whatever they do in the future though they certainly look too big a price at 68/25 with Marathon to win this game.

Stockport v Southport

Like Braintree I certainly didn’t see Southport’s cracking start coming. I wouldn’t have even had them that close to the promotion picture and yet they currently sit in 3rd place having lost just once. That was an unfortunate defeat to Salford last Monday and it was a game they didn’t deserve to lose. They bounced straight back with a good 2-0 win against Darlington on Saturday and they look over priced to beat a Stockport who have yet to really convince so far this season. I did put them up last Monday, but they were poor in a 3-1 defeat at Tamworth and then they only drew at home to Bradford Park Avenue on Saturday. Southport should be a much tougher test and it is hard to understand why they are 23/10 with Betfred and BetVictor.

Workington v Warrington

Granted the division is very tight after 6 games, but it has been very pleasing to see Warrington topping the table having put them up at 33/1 ante-post. To be fair they under performed in only beating Grimsby Borough 1-0 in the FA Cup on Saturday as they are 3 tiers below them, but amazingly that was their first win in the competition since they famously beat Exeter on the BBC. Workington are out of the FA Cup losing 1-0 to Scarborough who play in the league below so it was a bit of an upset. They have only won once in the league and that came on the first day of the season against a poor Halesowen side. Granted they have drawn their last 3 league matches, but I think Warrington should be favourites here and am happy to back them at BetVictor’s 9/5.

Braintree 2pts

Gloucester City 2pts

Hemel Hempstead 1pt

Southport 1pt

Warrington 1pt

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