Another winning Nap last weekend with Royston doing well to hold on for victory having had 10 men for a fair part of the match. That makes it 4 winning Naps out of 5 at prices of 2/1, 6/5, 12/5 and 11/4. This weekend I like the look of 6 bets.
Macclesfield v Dover
Must admit I am not sure why this game takes place on Friday night, but hopefully it can give me a good start to the weekend. My tip for Dover to go down is already looking pretty bad given their strong start to the season. Their only defeat so far came against Bromley when in fact they were by far the better team and should really have won rather than suffering a 2-1 defeat. They got a solid draw against Barrow last Saturday and they look over priced to beat a Macclesfield side who look pretty average so far this season. Their only win so far came against Wrexham on the first day of the season, but they were fortunate to pick up the 3 points that day. Since then they have drawn at home to Hartlepool and Bromley before conceding two late goals against Sutton and then being well beaten 3-0 by Gateshead last weekend. Dover have looked the better side of the two so far and William Hill’s 11/5 looks too big.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Bromley
When John Still won the league with Luton he set them up to be very hard to score goals against in the early part of the season. It worked well although they scored very few, but he then worked on that once they were solid defensively. It is then surprising to see how bad Dagenham have defended so far this season. They have conceded in every game so far including two 2-2 draws and a 3-3 draw. At the other end, as those 3 results show, they don’t have any issues either and given their other 2 results were 2-1 victories that obviously means they have scored at least twice in all 5 matches so far this season. To be fair to Bromley they have only conceded twice this season, but that was against teams who haven’t exactly been prolific in their other games this season and I think they will find it much harder to keep Dagenham out. Bromley have scored 10 goals so far and although 6 did come against Lincoln it does show they have goals in them and they are sure to get a few chances against Dagenham’s dodgy defence. The bet I like here is for there to be over 2.5 goals and both teams to score which is even money with Coral and Stan James. That bet will have won in every Dagenham game this season.
Hartlepool v AFC Fylde
Two sides who have yet to win this season, but the away team have looked the better side to me. In my ante-post preview I was concerned about Hartlepool’s choice of manager and I really do think his lack of knowledge when it comes to this league has been a big issue as to why they have only 2 points on the board. I also talked about how Padraig Almond was going to be a key player for them and he left for Newport this week. That is a big blow for them especially as they have only scored 3 goals so far this season. Amazingly Fylde have drawn 4 of their 5 games so far with the only blip the 4-1 defeat to Maidenhead when Dave Tarpey scored all 4 goals. The last two Saturday’s they have conceded 90th minute equalizers and they aren’t far away from getting that crucial win. They have conceded 12 goals so far, but given Hartlepool’s lack of fire power hopefully that shouldn’t be too much of a concern and they do have goals in them so even if Hartlepool did manage 1 I would still be pretty hopeful Fylde could score at least 2. Marathon have them a shade bigger than 5/2 and that looks huge. They are my Nap of the day.
Tranmere v Boreham Wood
It is hard to know what has gone wrong so far this season for Tranmere and although it is early stages I am worried about my ante-post bet on them. They have only won once so far and that 3-1 victory over Woking are the only goals they have scored so far. That is a big concern as they should really be a team full of goals. On paper they also had a pretty easy start to the season so the fact they have only picked up 5 points is disappointing. Obviously for ante-post reasons I hope they can get 3 points on Saturday, but I have to back Boreham Wood here at 23/5 with Marathon. Wood certainly have had no issues with scoring goals and they are the leagues joint top scorers on 13 with Aldershot, who they beat 2-1 last Saturday. There may have been a bit of fortune in both their goals, but they were the better team and deserved the win. I would still have Tranmere as favourites for this game, but there is no way that Wood should be that big given the current form of both sides and they are worth a bet.
Hungerford v Gloucester City
My team Gloucester have had a very slow start to the season and only had a point on the board prior to a really good 1-0 win over Hemel last Saturday. That was a much improved performance and hopefully that will kick start Gloucester’s season. On the back of that I can’t really understand why Marathon have an away win priced up at 100/30 especially as Hungerford have the same points tally as City. Hungerford picked up their 4 points in their first two games and have lost their following 3. They also lost their manager last weekend who resigned after the Welling game saying he had already made up his mind to leave and then a couple of days later ended up as Wealdstone manager despite the fact he said in a statement that he was going to take a break! Why he just couldn’t have been honest I don’t know, but he has also taking his coaching team with him which has left two senior players in charge at Hungerford. That has to have had some sort of affect on the players and although they should still be favs these two sides should be much closer in the betting.
Dorking Wanderers v Staines Town
Staines have made a really good start to the season. They played well at Dulwich in their opener when getting a 1-1 draw and then they have scored 11 without reply when beating Tooting 6-0 and Kingstonian 5-0. Promoted Dorking did win their only home game 4-1 against Met Police, but they have lost their other two games and this looks their toughest test yet. I certainly am not saying Staines are going to score in big numbers again, but after such a promising start to the season they should be capable of picking up three more points. BetVictor are biggest at 11/8.
Dagenham v Bomley Over 2.5 goals & BTTS 1.5pts
AFC Fylde 2pts
Boreham Wood 1pt
Gloucester City 1pt
Staines Town 1pt